A Case for God’s Existence

“If there were no God, counterfactual truths would have no grounding in reality. But since counterfactuals exist, a necessary, transcendent mind must also exist.”

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Introduction: Why Counterfactuals Matter

Most arguments for God’s existence focus on the origins of the universe (cosmological argument), the fine-tuning of physical laws (teleological argument), or objective morality (moral argument). However, one of the most overlooked yet powerful arguments for God comes from counterfactuals—statements about what could have been but are not.

Counterfactual reasoning underlies moral responsibility, scientific discovery, and human decision-making, yet it only makes sense if reality is grounded in a transcendent mind rather than in physical necessity or randomness. This argument demonstrates that counterfactual truths cannot exist in an atheistic worldview, as they are non-physical yet objectively real. The best explanation is a necessary, transcendent mind—God.

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What Are Counterfactuals?

A counterfactual is a conditional statement about what would be the case under different circumstances:

• If Abraham Lincoln had not been assassinated, Reconstruction would have been different.
• If you had left five minutes earlier, you would not have hit traffic.
• If God did not exist, would logic, morality, or consciousness still exist?

Counterfactuals do not exist physically, yet they appear to be objectively true. But how can something true and realexist if it is not physical? This is where the argument points to God.

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Syllogism: The Argument from Counterfactuals

Premise 1: If naturalism (atheistic materialism) is true, then only things that physically exist can be true.

Premise 2: Counterfactual truths (things that could have been but are not) do not exist physically, yet they are objectively real.

Premise 3: The existence of objective, non-physical truths (such as counterfactuals) requires a transcendent, necessary mind to ground them.

Conclusion: Therefore, a transcendent, necessary mind (God) must exist.

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The Challenge for Atheism: How Can Counterfactual Truths Exist?

Atheism often claims that truth is determined by physical reality—but counterfactual truths exist independently of the physical world. The laws of logic, morality, and even mathematics remain true even in hypothetical alternate scenarios.

1. Atheistic Naturalism Cannot Account for Non-Physical Truths

• Atheists typically argue that truth is grounded in empirical, physical evidence.
• But counterfactuals describe situations that never happened—so they are not physically real.
• If atheism is true, then counterfactuals shouldn’t exist at all—yet they undeniably do.

David Lewis, an atheist philosopher, admits:
“The question of whether counterfactuals are real presents an uncomfortable challenge to materialism.”¹

¹ David Lewis, Counterfactuals (Harvard University Press, 1973).

2. Counterfactuals Require an Intellect to Evaluate Them

• If counterfactuals exist, they must be evaluated and grounded in a mind that understands all possibilities.
• Only an infinite, omniscient mind (God) can ground the truth of all possible realities—a limited human brain cannot account for them.

Alvin Plantinga argues:
“Counterfactuals, like logical laws, require a necessary intellect for their grounding. Otherwise, they would be unintelligible.”²

² Alvin Plantinga, God and Other Minds (Cornell University Press, 1967).

Timothy Williamson, a leading philosopher on counterfactuals, agrees:
“The very nature of counterfactuals assumes a structure to reality that transcends human knowledge, implying a grounding beyond empirical constraints.”³

³ Timothy Williamson, The Philosophy of Counterfactuals (Oxford University Press, 2007).

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Scientific Applications: Counterfactuals in Physics and Mathematics

Counterfactual reasoning is fundamental to scientific progress, particularly in quantum mechanics, probability theory, and counterfactual computation.

• Quantum Physics: The concept of superposition in quantum mechanics suggests that multiple possible outcomes exist until measured—which assumes counterfactuals are real.
• Chaos Theory: Scientists use counterfactuals to predict alternative weather patterns, disease spread, and climate models.
• Artificial Intelligence: Machine learning algorithms use counterfactual reasoning to improve decision-making in AI models.

Physicist Roger Penrose states:
“Mathematical truths, including counterfactuals, seem to exist independently of the physical world, suggesting a transcendent source.”⁴

⁴ Roger Penrose, The Emperor’s New Mind (Oxford University Press, 1989).

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Molinism and the Biblical Connection

Molinism, a theological framework developed by Luis de Molina (1535–1600), argues that God possesses “middle knowledge”—a knowledge of all possible worlds and counterfactuals of free will. This concept directly supports the idea that God is the foundation of counterfactual truths.

Jesus affirms counterfactual realities in Matthew 11:21-23, saying:
“If the miracles performed in you had been performed in Tyre and Sidon, they would have repented long ago.”

This statement means that Jesus knew what would have happened under different circumstances, affirming that counterfactuals exist and are known by God.

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Objection: Can’t Counterfactuals Be Abstract Objects?

Some atheists argue that counterfactuals exist abstractly, like numbers or logic, without needing a mind. But this fails for three reasons:

1. Abstract objects don’t “exist” in a vacuum—they require something to ground them.
2. Counterfactuals require knowledge and reasoning, which abstract numbers lack.
3. Atheism rejects non-physical entities as “real”, yet counterfactuals behave as if they are objectively true.

Thus, the only sufficient grounding for counterfactual truths is the mind of God.

Graham Oppy, a leading atheist philosopher, concedes:
“One of the most challenging aspects of naturalism is accounting for the truth conditions of counterfactual statements.”⁵

⁵ Graham Oppy, Atheism: The Basics (Routledge, 2018).

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Counterfactuals Point to God

The existence of true, non-physical counterfactual statements presents a serious challenge to atheistic materialism.

• Atheism cannot explain why counterfactuals exist.
• Naturalism cannot provide a rational foundation for counterfactual truths.
• Theism offers a clear explanation: Counterfactual truths exist in the mind of God.

If there were no God, then counterfactual truths—along with logic, morality, and knowledge—would have no foundation. But because counterfactual truths exist, they require a necessary, transcendent mind to ground them. That mind is God.

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Final Challenge for Skeptics

If counterfactual truths exist but do not have a physical form, what grounds their reality apart from God?

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